The Fermi paradox is the discrepancy between the lack of conclusive evidence of advanced extraterrestrial life and the apparently high likelihood of its existence.
The Fermi paradox states that if life is so easy, someone from somewhere must have come calling by now.
Fermi’s Theory was the first theoretical effort in describing nuclear decay rates for β decay. The interaction could also explain muon decay
A Fermi problem is an estimation problem that’s used in physics and engineering education. It’s also known as an order-of-magnitude problem. The goal of a Fermi problem is to teach dimensional analysis and approximation of extreme scientific calculations.
A typical solution to a Fermi problem involves multiplying together a series of estimates. For example, a classic Fermi problem is “How many piano tuners are there in Chicago?” . To solve this problem, you might make the following assumptions:
- Chicago has a population of about 3 million people.
- The average family contains four members.
- One in five families owns a piano.
The Fermi process is a technique that allows you to formulate an answer to a problem based on a series of logical assumptions. The result is an order of magnitude solution
Fermi questions are named after Enrico Fermi, a Nobel Laureate in Physics who was known for solving these types of questions. Fermi questions ask for a quick estimate of a quantity that seems difficult or impossible to determine precisely.
Here are some examples of Fermi questions:
- “How many licks does it take to get to the center of a tootsie roll pop?”
- “If the school district reduces the maximum class size to 20 students, how much would it cost to hire the extra teachers?”
- “How long would it take to read all of Wikipedia?”
The Drake equation is possibly the most famous Fermi question. The Drake equation seeks to estimate the number of intelligent civilizations in the galaxy.
A Fermi answer is a quick, rough estimate of a quantity that’s difficult or impossible to measure directly. Fermi answers are often based on reasonable assumptions and estimates. They’re sometimes called “back of envelope” calculations.
Fermi answers are often approximate and don’t have clear cut answers. Sometimes, there are alternative paths to solutions.
The Fermi problem-solving strategy involves:
- Breaking down a large question into its smallest elements.
- Solving for each element.
- Assembling all the elements to produce a conclusion
Given that our solar system is quite young compared to the rest of the universe — roughly 4.5 billion years old, compared to 13.8 billion — and that interstellar travel might be fairly easy to achieve given enough time, Earth should have been visited by aliens already, the idea goes.
The paradox takes its name from Nobel Prize-winning physicist Enrico Fermi, who supposedly made the above points during a casual lunchtime conversation in 1950. And the implications have had astrobiologists and other scientists scratching their heads in the decades since.
Fermi grasped that any civilization with a modest amount of rocket technology and an immodest amount of imperial incentive could rapidly colonize the entire galaxy,” representatives of the Search For Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) Institute in Mountain View, California, wrote in a Fermi Paradox explainer. “Within a few tens of millions of years, every star system could be brought under the wing of empire. Tens of millions of years may sound like a long project, but in fact it’s quite short compared to the age of the galaxy, which is roughly a thousand times more.
The Drake equation
The Drake equation is a probabilistic argument that estimates the number of active, communicative extraterrestrial civilizations in the Milky Way Galaxy. It was first discussed in 1961 at a conference on the “search for extraterrestrial intelligence” (SETI).
The equation is calculated by multiplying the following:
- R: The number of stars made in the Milky Way galaxy in one year
- Fp: The fraction of stars that have planets
- Ne: The fraction of those planets where life can exist
- FL: The fraction of those planets where life does exist
The equation is similar to how you might estimate the number of students at a university. You consider the number of new students (freshmen) entering each year and multiply that by the average number of years the students will spend at the school (four years).
The equation is N = R*fpneflfifcL.
The equation’s main drawback is that it cannot account for things which we have not even thought to consider. Any attempt to solve it requires guesswork for many of the variables, leading to wildly different results.
The Fermi paradox is a conflict between the argument that scale and probability seem to favor intelligent life being common in the universe, and the total lack of evidence of intelligent life having ever arisen anywhere other than on Earth.
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