Recent research by paleontologists at the University of Oxford suggests that intelligent life in the cosmos may be exceptionally rare. Their statistical model indicates that the time required for complex intelligent life to evolve likely exceeds the lifespan of most stars, making it a rare occurrence. This research aligns with the Rare Earth hypothesis, which posits that the emergence of life on Earth is a result of a unique confluence of factors, making it an unlikely event elsewhere in the universe.

Paleontologists who study earth’s ancient fossil record might not seem to be the obvious choice when asking about the prevalence of intelligent life in the cosmos. But paleontology, the study of ancient life, is a good place to start when asking profound philosophical questions about the evolution of life here on our own planet and elsewhere.

To that end, at least one prominent evolutionary biologist, who has devoted his career to studying the fossils of extinct marine invertebrates, says that while life itself may be common off world, intelligent life —- particularly of the sort that can build radio telescopes and spaceships —- is likely to be very rare indeed.

To that end, at least one prominent evolutionary biologist, who has devoted his career to studying the fossils of extinct marine invertebrates, says that while life itself may be common off world, intelligent life —- particularly of the sort that can build radio telescopes and spaceships —- is likely to be very rare

The number of highly intelligent species on earth represents an incredibly small percentage compared to the total number of species, Bruce Lieberman, the book’s co-author, and an evolutionary biologist and paleontologist at the University of Kansas in Lawrence, told me via email. It took more than 100,000 years for our species to be able to develop the technology to build spaceships, he said. Thus, the development of species that could create complex technologies seems extremely rare, Lieberman told me.

That doesn’t mean that the onset of life here was a surprise, nor should it be elsewhere.

Based on what we know of the fossil record here, life should be extremely common, said Lieberman. But the evolution of complex life on this planet took a long time to happen, about 2 billion years if we treat that as the origin of the eukaryotic cell (a cell with a membrane-bound organelles), he said. It then took another 1.4 billion years from that point to the origin of animals, said Lieberman. This makes me think that complex life should be rare, he said.

The Case For Geographic Isolation

If a population is geographically isolated from the rest of the species for long enough, it is likely to diverge and then speciate, said Lieberman. That might take a few hundred years to many tens of thousands of years, he said.

But there’s a downside to rapid evolution.

Groups with high rates of speciation evolve quickly, said Lieberman. But high rates of speciation almost always go with high rates of extinction, because the same process that causes speciation, geographic isolation, also leads to extinction, he said.

What are the chances of intelligent life in the Universe?

Frank and Sullivan (2016) argue that as long as the odds that intelligent life emerges on a habitable planet are >1 in 10²⁴, we will not be alone in the observable Universe. However, we find that for reasonable priors, the Carter argument places substantial probability on the odds being <1 in 10²⁴.

What is considered intelligent life?

If living beings develop advanced technology, they can make their existence known to the Universe. A working definition of “intelligent” includes self-awareness, use of tools, and use of language. The Encephalization Quotient (EQ) appears to correlate with intelligence

How rare is human life?

The probability of you existing at all comes out to 1 in 10^2,685,000 — yes, that’s a 10 followed by 2,685,000 zeroes

Even so, life often needs a push.

From studying the history of life preserved in the fossil record, I’ve learned that there’s not much evolution until life gets a ‘push,’ said Lieberman. Usually that push is an environmental change that causes populations of species to move, he said.

This causes a given species’ geographic range to either expand, or shrink and fragment.

When species’ ranges shrink and fragment, they become especially at risk of going extinct, but they’re also more likely to evolve into a new species, said Lieberman

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